DATASORA

IMA’s Q2 2026 tape: commercial property led the decline at −5.5% as three-quarters of carriers added capacity. Cyber −3.5%. D&O −2.1%, the eighth consecutive down quarter. Workers’ compensation also printed decreases.

• Property loss ratio improved to 85% YE 2025 even after California wildfires and SCS.
• Cyber threat activity is intensifying — identity-based attacks, BEC, third-party — while rates still fall.
• Excess D&O capacity remains abundant; buyers are expanding limits.

Analyst note — This is the oversupply map. Non-CAT property, cyber, and public D&O are crowded. The money is in the classes that did not get this capital: auto, excess construction casualty, older property.

2026 commercial outlooks still put auto at +8% to +15% on driver shortage, BI severity, and nuclear verdicts. Cyber is forecast −5% to +10% — the residual of a soft market meeting AI-related claims.

• Auto is a capacity and severity problem, not a pricing-cycle leftover.
• Cyber’s range straddles zero; the center of gravity is still negative.
• D&O private/nonprofit is roughly −5% to +5% — orderly, not a hard market.

Analyst note — If you need a one-line whitespace map: auto in, cyber out. Construction excess sits with auto. Public D&O sits with cyber.

Sompo agreed to buy Aspen for $37.50 per share in cash — about $3.5 billion — adding specialty insurance, global reinsurance, and the Aspen Capital Markets fee platform. James Shea framed it as scale at the right point in the cycle.

• Aspen brought cyber, credit & political risk, inland marine, U.K. property & construction, and U.S. management liability.
• Capital markets platform: more than $2bn AUM; 80% of 2024 fee income from non-cat, long-tail lines.
• Expected close was 1H 2026; Q1 FY26 reinsurance revenue now shows the integration.

Analyst note — This is the deal that turned Sompo from a large international P&C writer into a scaled specialty-and-reinsurance platform. Every 1/1 meeting this month is a test of that thesis.