DATASORA

The global data-center insurance market is about $11bn today and projected past $24bn by 2030. Fire drives severity — more than half of ~$800m of studied losses. Demand is stretching from builders risk into BI, power, and cyber-physical.

• Swiss Re Institute is the $11bn → $24bn source tape.
• Water damage is the frequency story; fire is the severity story.
• Integrated construction-to-operate covers at hyperscale values are still scarce.

Analyst note — New white space, not a rate story yet. Sompo’s construction, property, energy, and cyber desks will see the same submission. The question is who can authorize the whole stack.

Effective tariff rates on construction goods hit a 40-year high of 25–30% in 2025, with steel and aluminum as high as 50%. Policies written on last year’s values are already underinsured.

• Deloitte’s 2026 E&C outlook is the source tape brokers are using in renewal meetings.
• Labor gaps plus material inflation push completed-value calculations through the year.
• More capacity entered builders risk, which is why non-CAT pricing loosened even as values rose.

Analyst note — Underinsurance is a claims event waiting. Sompo construction underwriters should be forcing mid-term value endorsements, not waiting for the next bound layer.

Ground-up non-CAT builders risk is stable to softening (−5% to +10%). Primary OCIP/CCIP is orderly; umbrella and excess liability still prints +5% to +30% depending on account and attachment.

• Gallagher has reported single-layer builders-risk decreases of 5–7% in non-CAT zones.
• Inland marine stays competitive even for contractors with some adverse loss history.
• CAT-exposed and high-hazard projects do not get the same relief.

Analyst note — Sompo can be relevant on non-CAT builders risk and wrap primary. The money — and the differentiation — is still in excess casualty, delay-in-start, and CAT-adjacent project property.

AXA XL’s construction property desk called 2025 a softer turning point after years of hardening: more flexibility, more capacity, more openness to complex projects — and stricter underwriting where climate CAT is real.

• ABC estimated ~439k net new construction hires in 2025 and ~499k in 2026 if spending accelerates.
• Cost inflation in labor, materials, and supply chain is still pushing insured values up.
• 2026 outlook: steadier pricing plus proactive risk mitigation, not a race to the bottom.

Analyst note — Competitors are leaning in on complex non-CAT work. Sompo’s construction franchise, now including Aspen’s U.K. property & construction specialty, should be on those same accounts.

Sompo agreed to buy Aspen for $37.50 per share in cash — about $3.5 billion — adding specialty insurance, global reinsurance, and the Aspen Capital Markets fee platform. James Shea framed it as scale at the right point in the cycle.

• Aspen brought cyber, credit & political risk, inland marine, U.K. property & construction, and U.S. management liability.
• Capital markets platform: more than $2bn AUM; 80% of 2024 fee income from non-cat, long-tail lines.
• Expected close was 1H 2026; Q1 FY26 reinsurance revenue now shows the integration.

Analyst note — This is the deal that turned Sompo from a large international P&C writer into a scaled specialty-and-reinsurance platform. Every 1/1 meeting this month is a test of that thesis.